Theresa May is Britain's worst procrastinator
She had a difficult choice to make — and she opted not to make it
The British Parliament will vote this afternoon on the agreement negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May to set terms for the country's divorce from the European Union. It is widely expected to fail. If it does, there will really only be two options left: a hard Brexit or no Brexit at all.
For different reasons, both choices are almost too painful to contemplate. But if there's any universal lesson from May's mess, it's that procrastination is no basis for policy.
To understand why, just look at May's looming failure of a deal. Brexit presented her with a choice: She could side with the majority of Brits who don't want to lose the almost frictionless trade arrangement they now enjoy with the rest of Europe, or she could side with the large contingent of voters and politicians who don't want to be subject to EU regulations and rules on immigration. But instead of choosing, May opted to kick the can down the road.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Through her deal, May basically created a holding pattern of a few years, during which all the hard choices would, somehow, be fleshed out. For instance, to solve the problem of what to do about the border between Ireland (staying in the EU) and Northern Ireland (leaving with the rest of the U.K.), May created a "backstop" of sorts: Barring any other negotiated settlement, portions of the U.K. would find themselves permanently subject to various EU trade and customs regulations — but without Britain's input into EU policy. It's meant to prevent the Irish border from reverting to a "hard" boundary with customs stops and physical checkpoints. But it's also supposed to be such an unsavory solution that it will force both sides to come up with something else. It's just that no one has any idea what that "something else" could be.
May's deal is essentially the worst of all possible worlds. It satisfies neither side. In fact, a vote was originally scheduled for December, and May pulled the plug at the last minute, fearing a sure defeat. Nothing has changed in British politics since to suggest today's outcome will be any different.
But that failure will also leave May's government with mere weeks to come up with a new plan. Brexit happens — come hell or high water — on March 29.
With so little time, the most likely scenario will be a "hard" Brexit. Basically, Britain crashes out of the EU with no deal in place to handle trade and regulatory relationships. Goods and services would attempt to move between Britain and other EU countries on March 30, only to find that the rules for how to do so have vanished ... and been replaced with nothing.
This outcome would give the pro-Brexit forces what they want: A clean break with all obligations to the European Union. But it would also ensure months, if not years, of economics chaos.
No one wants that either.
The only remaining option is to not go through with Brexit at all. Unfortunately, since the British populace did vote for Brexit, a refusal by the government to carry it out would create an unprecedented legitimacy crisis for the country's democracy. "People's faith in the democratic process and their politicians would suffer catastrophic harm," as May said on Monday. The government might be able to get around that problem by holding a second national referendum, in the hopes that voters change their minds. But that too carries risks: What if voters decide to remain, but with less overall turnout than the previous pro-Brexit decision. Which vote is more "legitimate" then?
There are rumblings that the British Parliament might try to wrest control of the Brexit process from May's executive government. Or that another snap election might replace May with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
But both solutions assume getting rid of May will somehow fix Britain's predicament. It won't. At this point, Brexit is a question for which there is nothing but horrible answers.
Unfortunately, someone has to choose one.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jeff Spross was the economics and business correspondent at TheWeek.com. He was previously a reporter at ThinkProgress.
-
'A speaker courageous enough to stand up to the extremists in his own party'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
How could the Supreme Court's Fischer v. US case impact the other Jan 6. trials including Trump's?
Today's Big Question A former Pennsylvania cop might hold the key to a major upheaval in how the courts treat the Capitol riot — and its alleged instigator
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Today's political cartoons - April 18, 2024
Cartoons Thursday's cartoons - impeachment Peanuts, record-breaking temperatures, and more
By The Week US Published
-
How would we know if World War Three had started?
Today's Big Question With conflicts in Ukraine, Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific, the 'spark' that could ignite all-out war 'already exists'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The issue of women and conscription
Under the radar Ukraine military adviser hints at widening draft to women, as other countries weigh defence options amid global insecurity
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Ukraine's unconventional approach to reconstruction
Under the radar Digitally savvy nation uses popular app to file compensation claims, access funds and rebuild destroyed homes
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Will Ukraine's leadership reset work?
Today's Big Question Zelenskyy hints at ousting of popular military chief, but risks backlash amid dwindling munitions, delayed funding and Russian bombardment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Imran Khan sentenced to 10 years: how powerful is Pakistan's military?
Today's Big Question The country's armed forces ignore country's economic woes, control its institutions and, critics say, engineer election results
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Iran's endgame?
Today's Big Question Tehran seeks to supplant US and Saudi Arabia as dominant power in Middle East while forcing Israel to end Gaza war
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Israel proposes two-month pause in Gaza war in exchange for all Hamas hostages
Speed Read Deal doesn't include an agreement to end war, but might be 'the only path that could lead to a ceasefire', said US officials
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Nato official warns of all-out war with Russia in next 20 years
Speed Read Civilians must prepare for life-changing conflict and mass mobilisation, says military chief
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published